Gold ETF Flows: November 2024

November sees outflows again

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Highlights

  • In November, global gold ETFs saw their first monthly outflow since April, led by Europe, while North America was the only region reporting inflows.
  • Total AUM fell 4% in the month, although y-t-d flows have remained positive at US$2.6bn. But the 29t fall in holdings last month flipped y-t-d demand to negative.
  • Global gold trading volumes kept rising, mainly driven by active trading of futures and ETFs.

November in review

Global physically backed gold ETFs1 reported a net loss for the first time in six months, with collective outflows of US$2.1bn in November (Table 1).2 Despite a weaker gold price, North America reported a fifth consecutive – albeit smaller – monthly inflow. All other regions witnessed outflows with Europe once again bearing the brunt of global losses. November's outflow along with a lower gold price brought total global gold ETF assets under management (AUM) down to US$274bn (-4%). Meanwhile, collective holdings fell 29t to 3,215t.

Despite recent losses, y-t-d inflows into global gold ETFs remained positive at US$2.6bn. Over the past eleven months, Asia and North America have driven global inflows while Europe remains the only region with outflows. Y-t-d global gold ETF demand has flipped negative (-11t) again due to the November weakness.

Regional overview

North American funds have witnessed five consecutive months of inflows, adding US$79mn in November. Despite aggressive risk-on positioning after the US election outcome, which placed pressure on the gold price, the region still reported inflows primarily due to increased Canadian demand. The US faced outflows through the first half of the month, but experienced a rebound of inflows into month-end as the market started pricing in a weaker dollar and lower yields following Scott Bessent’s nomination as US Treasury Secretary.3 We also believe demand has found a floor of support, due to the expectation for lower yields, a continuation of heightened geopolitical risk, and uncertainty around the implementation of future policy shifts and their global impact under the Trump administration.

European funds reported outflows in October, shedding US$1.9bn. Once again, outflows were seen across all major markets in the region. Europe is facing a variety of challenges that are pushing on flows, such as:

  • weaker-than-expected macro-economic data
  • broader concerns around trade tariffs from the future Trump administration4
  • central bank rate path uncertainty5
  • financial market behaviour shifting to risk-on.

Additionally, the euro and pound continue to experience weakness in tandem with poor economic data and the dollar reaching a new y-t-d high. Similar to trends observed in prior months, this dynamic has led to outflows related to FX hedging products.

Asian funds lost US$145mn in November, bringing an end to the region’s 20-month inflow streak. China dominated outflows as a notable local gold price drop dimmed investor interest. And the equity market, despite its volatility, continued to divert attention away from gold. Yet, Indian gold ETFs recorded inflows for the eighth consecutive month, attracting US$175mn in November, likely driven by rising equity market volatility and general bullish sentiment towards gold.

Funds elsewhere reported outflows of US$59mn, snapping the region’s five-month inflow streak. Australia led outflows amid continued strength in local equities, elevated yields and a weaker gold price.6

 

Gold trading volumes kept rising

Global gold trading volumes have now risen for three consecutive months, averaging US$290bn in November, 8% higher m/m despite a falling gold price. Higher exchange-traded activities were a main contributor – both futures trading volumes at COMEX (+50%) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (+33%) saw notable gains. Global gold ETF volumes also jumped, rising 17% to US$3bn/day – with North America driving the growth. Meanwhile, global OTC gold trading saw an 8% m/m fall to US$167bn.

Total net longs of COMEX’s gold futures ended November at 768t, a 15% m/m fall. Money managers reduced their net long positions by 16% to 616t by the end of the month. We believe the gold price weakness and a declining volatility have dimmed their interest in gold futures trading. Meanwhile, continued strength in equities may have also diverted their attention away from gold.

 

Gold ETF flows

Data as of

Demand captures changes in global/regional gold holdings; fund flows capture the net amount of money (in USD) that comes in or out of gold ETFs globally/regionally. See methodology note.

 **Note: As of 1 July 2021, this dataset now includes several enhancements, which we believe improve the accuracy and usability of the data.

  • Fund aggregation: funds that include more than one asset or sub-asset class are now grouped and displayed as a single product. This allows tracking of total assets of individual funds over time more easily. This change applies mainly to various European funds (and a few other regions) which, for example, offer different listings of the same fund structure and that were previously treated in our universe, for simplicity, as distinct products.
  • Holdings accuracy: the estimation of gold holdings by converting net asset values (NAVs) of the different funds to tonnage now uses relevant regional gold price benchmarks for funds in China and India, which we believe is more precise. Previously, for ease of calculation, we used the LBMA Gold Price PM for all funds. Thus, differences between those benchmarks and the LBMA Gold Price, whether due to timing or due to local premiums, could result in a less accurate estimation of the gold holdings. This was especially noticeable for funds listed in China and India during days when the gold price experienced significant moves or there were regional holidays. 
  • Previously, changes in tonnes were calculated by converting a fund’s AUM (in USD) into gold holdings (in tonnes) and computing the difference over periods. However, currency movements and large daily and weekly gold price movements could distort the difference between tonnage change and US-dollar fund flows during short time horizons. We therefore adjusted tonnage change as a function of fund flows versus AUM and replaced the tonnage change field with fund flows (tonnes).
  • Now, for most funds, we estimate US-dollar fund flows, as described in section 2.3.2 below, and then convert those flows to fund flows (tonnes).
    Fund flows (tonnes) and US-dollar fund flows will now represent a more aligned explanation of investment demand for gold ETFs, while the true holdings of a fund, in US dollars and tonnage, will remain a close estimate, impacted by the currency and price volatility described above.
  • Based on our initial analysis, the changes are not likely to have a material long-term effect on historical information, particularly on a global or regional aggregate basis, but will adjust short-term fluctuations that can sometimes occur due to input data and timing variations.
  • As of 1st September the fund flows data includes an additional tab showing tonnage flows (Delta tonnes) for monthly and daily periods.

These changes may lead to some – generally minor – revisions of historical data.

Footnotes

  1. We define gold ETFs as regulated securities that hold gold in physical form. These include open-ended funds traded on regulated exchanges and other regulated products such as closed-end funds and mutual funds. A complete list is included in the gold ETF section of Goldhub.com.

  2. We track gold ETF assets in two ways: the quantity of gold they hold, generally measured in tonnes, and the equivalent value of those holdings in US dollars (AUM). We also monitor how these fund assets change through time by looking at two key metrics: demand and fund flows. For more detail, see our ETF methodology note.

  3. For more, see: US Treasuries rally on bets Bessent will soften Trump’s plans | MSN.

  4. For more, see: German businesses grow more pessimistic as geopolitical pressures mount | WSJ.

  5. For more, see: ECB must be open-minded, act carefully on rates | Bloomberg. 

  6. For more, see: Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rates Steady; Not Ruling Out Further Hike | Morningstar.