The Global Experts on Gold

Gold fell 1% in May, on continued positive risk sentiment and modest global gold ETF outflows. Looking forward the Fed may need to hike rates as inflation pressures mount. We make the case for why it could – surprisingly – benefit gold. But gold also faces headwinds, which could be prolonged if the Hormuz standoff drags on.

Global physically backed gold ETFs saw modest outflows in May, shedding US$2bn as investors remained largely sidelined. Europe was the only region to record inflows (+US$334mn), while Asia (-US$1.2bn) and North America (-US$1.1bn) led outflows. The May decline pushed global gold ETFs’ total AUM 2% lower in the month to US$604bn. Meanwhile, holdings edged down to 4,121t, remaining just below the February peak of 4,176t.

Gold demand saw a modest y/y increase in Q1 to 1,231t, while value surged to a record US$193bn. Bar and coin investment drove gains, while ETF buying slowed in Q1. Central banks continued to buy in healthy size. Jewellery demand volumes remained under pressure amid record high prices.

Data on sectors of gold demand, supply, productions costs and futures market positioning

Benchmark gold prices, gold futures curves and local price premium/discount

Returns, volatility, correlations and trading volumes for gold, bonds, equities and other major asset classes

Data on central bank gold holdings, sales and purchases, as well as insights from annual surveys into central bank attitudes towards gold.