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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) waved goodbye to its negative interest rate policy on 18 March 2024, lifting its interest rate to a range of zero to 0.1%, the first rate hike since 2007.
While gold investments have been gaining popularity among Japanese households, both life, and property and casualty (P&C) insurers have made limited gold investments, despite the sheer size of the Japanese insurance market in terms of premiums and assets.
In January, gold gave back gains after hitting an all-time high at the close of 2023. Looking forward, hot US growth data may delay lower rates, but politics and geopolitics will likely maintain interest in gold.
This compendium brings together a series of reports published over the last three years, giving unparalleled insight into the key factors that underpin India’s gold market, including the drivers of gold demand, the changing structure of the jewellery market, the new investment landscape, and the dynamics of gold supply.
As we look forward to 2024, we explore three economic scenarios and their likely impact on gold. Historically, gold has had a flat performance during consensus-favoured ‘soft landings’; however, geopolitical risks, central bank buying and the spectre of a recession may provide additional support for gold.
Outflows from physically-backed gold ETFs totalled US$2bn in October, the fifth consecutive monthly loss. Collective holdings reduced by 37t to 3,245t.
Gold prices started the month on the backfoot, having fallen below US$1,850/oz at the end of September. The events in Israel on 7 October set a rally in motion that took the US dollar price back up above US$2,000/oz by 27 October. The record-high monthly finish was mirrored in almost all other major currencies
Central banks gold buying maintained a historic pace but fell short of the Q3’22 record. Jewellery demand softened slightly in the face of high gold prices, while the investment picture was mixed.
Gold lost 3.7% in September, with the bulk of the move occurring during the last three days of the month. We attribute gold’s challenging month to an extensive run up in bond yields alongside a stronger dollar. The sell off at the end of the month was also likely the result of a strong adverse reaction to US economic data, a fall in the Chinese local premium and a negative technical breach.