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Gold in US$/oz returned just 0.1% in April, consolidating after a strong run up during Q1. Support for gold came from lower rates and positive ETF flows while lower inflation expectations and profit taking created a drag.
Gold is an attractive means of helping investors diversify their portfolios. Its relative scarcity supports its long-term investment appeal. But its market size is large enough to make it relevant for a wide variety of investors, from individuals to institutions and central banks.
Cracks from unprecedented rate hikes are beginning to show, with US small banks and real estate sectors at the epicentre. Gold’s case just got stronger.
Gold shed 5.2% in February, as surprisingly strong US economic data propelled both yields and the US dollar higher. Global gold ETFs suffered more losses led by European funds while North American funds saw small outflows for the first time in two months. Recent futures positioning remains unavailable following issues with the data.
A falling US dollar was a significant contributor to gold’s 6.1% return in January and another positive ‘unexplained’ factor could be continued central bank buying or expectations thereof. Gold futures have also helped support the rally and, looking forward, we expect North American gold ETFs to continue seeing positive demand in coming weeks as historical analysis shows that positioning in futures tends to lead ETFs flows by two weeks.
Over the past three decades the gold market has undergone extraordinary change . The structure and dynamics of demand and supply are vastly different from those of thirty years ago.
Colossal central bank purchases, aided by vigorous retail investor buying and slower ETF outflows, lifted annual demand to an 11-year high. Annual gold demand (excluding OTC) jumped 18% to 4,741t, almost on a par with 2011 – a time of exceptional investment demand. The strong full-year total was aided by record Q4 demand of 1,337t.
The notable rebound in Q3 Chinese gold jewellery demand from the COVID-stricken Q2 and easing COVID restrictions paints a bright picture for the future. And our third annual gold jewellery retailer survey with China Gold News suggest that opportunities abound.
The global economy is at an inflection point after being hit by various shocks over the past year. The biggest was induced by central banks as they stepped up their aggressive fight against inflation.
Global gold ETFs registered their seventh consecutive month of net outflows in November. But outflows slowed to a relatively modest 33t (US$1.8bn), having also decelerated m-o-m in October (to -59t).