
Featured Report
Physically backed gold ETFs saw global outflows of 173 tonnes (t) (-US$9.1bn, -4.0% AUM) in 2021. Collective gold holdings were down 5% to 3,570t for the year, while assets under management (AUM) in value terms dropped 9% to US$209bn as net outflows were compounded by a 4% contraction in the gold price. Despite considerable outflows for the year, gold ETF holdings remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels, as they posted record inflows of approximately 875t (US$48bn) during 2020.
The shift to risker and less liquid assets strengthens the case for an allocation to gold, given its unique combination as a highly liquid, low-volatility asset.
Gold rose 2% in November based on the LBMA reference price, rallying early in the month before giving up most of those gains in the following weeks.
Gold rose slightly in October, despite a risk-on environment and increases in short-term bond yields
Gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) experienced net outflows of 25.5 tonnes (t) (-US$1.4bn, -0.7% AUM) in October. Outflows of near equal magnitude from Europe and North America were marginally offset by inflows in Asia.
Fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s already declining cash target rate dropped to 0.1% in 2020, the lowest since 1990. This led to a reduction in Australian superannuation fund allocations to cash and bonds and an increase in risk-on assets, such as equities, in the hunt for returns. But will this move help achieve their desired returns at reasonable risk levels?
Over the past two months, economic growth has disappointed even as inflation has exceeded expectations. A real risk of stagflation, with rising costs amid lower growth, appears to be on the cards.
Gold fell in September by 4% to around US$1,743/oz. This was the second consecutive month of declines, with gold now over 8% lower y-t-d. Gold wasn’t alone. Treasuries, Corporates, US- and non-US equities all fell in September possibly as a result of deleveraging. The Q2 level of margin debt for equities was at a record high. It would be understandable if some leverage has been removed as we head into the historically volatile month of October. And it’s quite possible that this de-leveraging has affected most assets (energy and industrial metals excepted).
Gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) experienced net outflows of 15.2 tonnes (t) (-US$830mn, -0.4% AUM) in September. Outflows in Europe and North America were only partially offset by inflows in Asia. Global gold ETF holdings fell to 3,592t (US$201bn) during the month – the lowest tonnage level since April – as the gold price fell on the back of rising yields, a stronger dollar and a reduction in COMEX managed money net long positions.
We launched QaurumSM almost two years ago in response to a vocal need for more robust and accessible gold valuation analytics. While these exist in abundance for other asset classes, gold investors have historically had to settle for something more cursory or incomplete.