Investment Insights

Inflation, falling yields and the US dollar pushed gold higher

Marking a turnaround from the first three months of the year, gold rebounded 4.5% in April to finish the month at US$1,768/oz - its highest monthly closing level since January and its first positive monthly return since December 2020.

After a strong 2020 performance where the price rallied 25% in US dollar terms in an environment where rates fell, gold has been much weaker during 2021, down 5% year-to-date with rising rates.

Inflation has emerged as a primary concern for investors. On balance, arguments for ‘uncomfortably high’ US inflation seem to outnumber those against, at least in the near term.

A sharp rise in US interest rates and a stronger dollar have weighed on gold recently. But a rebound in economic activity and a lower gold price have provided opportunities for consumers and strategic investors alike.

How gold’s role in a portfolio differs from cryptos

The COVID-19 pandemic raised uncertainty by both compounding existing risks while creating new ones. But by the end of last year, investors were optimistic that the worst was over. 

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds and similar products (gold ETFs) have flourished since their introduction in 2003, attracting both institutional and retail investors across the globe. Recently, gold has become globally accepted as a strategic asset amidst a high-risk and low-rate environment spurring investment demand and the expansion of the gold-ETF market.

Gold has been on a generally positive trend for the past few years. However, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has made gold’s relevance as a hedge even more apparent and accelerated its price performance. Gold increased by 17% during the first half of 2020, moving up by an additional 10% in July.  

Our new gold market outlook examines how the combination of high risk, low opportunity cost and positive price momentum looks set to support gold investment and offset weakness in consumption from an economic contraction.

The COVID pandemic and the ensuing economic lockdowns around the world have slashed global growth forecasts in 2020, but expectations of the speed of the economic recovery are quite varied. We analyse the potential performance of gold across four hypothetical scenarios provided by Oxford Economics.