A better gold valuation tool for investors
We launched QaurumSM almost two years ago in response to a vocal need for more robust and accessible gold valuation analytics. While these exist in abundance for other asset classes, gold investors have historically had to settle for something more cursory or incomplete.
Housed on our data and research portal Goldhub, Qaurum is an interactive tool, powered by our Gold Valuation Framework, that strives to help investors understand how gold prices are determined by the interaction of macroeconomic drivers and gold’s supply and demand (Focus 1).
A question investors often ask is how Qaurum compares to a more simplistic model based on just two inputs: US real interest rates and a dollar index. This ‘simple’ model is often referenced in financial literature and appears to have worked well over the last few years.
While US real rates and the dollar can explain gold well, the gold market is deeper and broader than these two factors imply. Seeing gold through such a narrow lens can be limiting both in understanding gold and in forming a robust view of its future performance. We find that…
A simple model assumes that prices are almost exclusively determined on the basis of US financial indicators and is often spuriously constructed in levels which can pose statistical issues
There is a clear structural shift in the relationship between gold and US real rates in late 2008, which may or may not reverse in future
During several instances in history where the underlying relationships have flipped, gold, the USD and real rates moved in tandem
Qaurum does more than just predict movements in the gold price. It’s designed to promote an understanding of the various and sometime contradictory forces that drive gold and to offer a forward-looking view of how gold might respond in a variety of scenarios
On measures of in-sample and out-of-sample Goodness-of-fit, Qaurum scores higher than the simple model (Table 1)
Table 1: Comparing the goodness-of-fit between Qaurum and the simple model
R-squared, Directional accuracy and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) across 4 sets of samples. All values in %.
In-sample range | Out-of-sample range | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goodness-of-fit measure | Model | to 2016 | to 2017 | to 2018 | to 2019 | from 2017 | from 2018 | from 2019 | from 2020 |
R-squared | Qaurum | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | ||||
Simple | 47 | 37 | 36 | 36 | |||||
Directional | Qaurum | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
accuracy | Simple | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 60 | 60 | 80 | 100 |
RMSE | Qaurum | 9 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 10.1 |
Simple | 18.1 | 17.6 | 17 | 17.4 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 13.3 | 11.9 |