Regional Insights

Fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s already declining cash target rate dropped to 0.1% in 2020, the lowest since 1990. This led to a reduction in Australian superannuation fund allocations to cash and bonds and an increase in risk-on assets, such as equities, in the hunt for returns. But will this move help achieve their desired returns at reasonable risk levels?

Econometric analysis shows that rising income is the most powerful driver of Indian gold demand in the long term. This bodes well for gold demand as the economy is set to benefit from a demographic dividend: the IMF forecasts per capita GDP growth of 23% between 2022 and 2026. 

Gold fell in September by 4% to around US$1,743/oz. This was the second consecutive month of declines, with gold now over 8% lower y-t-d. Gold wasn’t alone. Treasuries, Corporates, US- and non-US equities all fell in September possibly as a result of deleveraging. The Q2 level of margin debt for equities was at a record high. It would be understandable if some leverage has been removed as we head into the historically volatile month of October. And it’s quite possible that this de-leveraging has affected most assets (energy and industrial metals excepted).

Amid strong growth in the economy, a relatively stable gold price and the effective containment of the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s gold jewellery demand in the first half of 2021 totalled 338t.

Higher inflation across Europe in recent months has raised questions over when the European Central Bank (ECB) may begin to tighten monetary policy.

Equity yields support gold as investors position for historical September strength

Inflation fears and momentum ignite gold

Gold registered healthy positive returns for the second consecutive month, erasing the losses accumulated during Q1. Gold ended May at US$1,899.95/oz – its highest level since January and back above its 200-day moving average – representing a 7.5% m-o-m increase.

Inflation, falling yields and the US dollar pushed gold higher

Marking a turnaround from the first three months of the year, gold rebounded 4.5% in April to finish the month at US$1,768/oz - its highest monthly closing level since January and its first positive monthly return since December 2020.