Featured Report
Gold demand rallied in the closing months of 2017, gaining 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1,095.8 tonnes (t) in Q4. But it was too little, too late: full year demand fell by 7% to 4,071.7t.
This report covers key stages in the hallmarking journey in order to ascertain what works best in other jurisdictions and how India can maximise the benefits of mandatory hallmarking.
The third quarter saw a 9% year-on-year (y-o-y) drop in gold demand to 915 tonnes (t). Year-to-date (y-t-d) demand was down by 12%. ETFs had another quarter of positive inflows, but at 18.9t, they fell far short of the 144.3t influx in Q3 2016.
Q2 gold demand of 953.4t was 10% lower than 2016, while H1 demand slowed 14% to 2,003.8t.
The gold market is broad and complex, so producing statistics on demand and supply is challenging. But having such statistics is crucial to understanding the fundamentals of the market.
Global gold demand in Q1 2017 was 1,034.5t. The 18% y-o-y decline suffers from the comparison with Q1 2016, which was the strongest ever first quarter. Inflows into ETFs of 109.1t, although solid, were nonetheless a fraction of last year’s near-record inflows.
2016 full-year gold demand gained 2% to reach a 3-year high of 4,308.7t. Annual inflows into ETFs reached 531.9t, the second highest on record. Declines in jewellery and central bank purchases offset this growth.
In 2015 India was the world’s fast growing economy; in recent years millions have been lifted out of poverty and India’s middle class has swelled. This is important because our econometric analysis indicates income growth drives gold demand.
China has gone through remarkable change in the past 30 years. Within one generation, the shape of our economy has altered beyond all recognition: agriculture’s share of output has fallen and the service sector has become an important driver of growth.
Third quarter gold demand fell 10% to 992.8 tonnes (t). While this was the lowest quarter since Q2 2015, year-to-date demand is up 7%.