Featured Report
Gold ETF outflows in Europe and Asia outweighed North American inflows in January
Global physically backed gold ETFs kicked off 2023 with net outflows of US$1.6bn in January and a 26t (-0.8%) decline in total holdings to 3,446t. While the gold price witnessed its strongest January in a decade, registering a gain of 6.1%, gold ETF outflows in Europe and Asia dwarfed positive demand in North America and the Other region.
Gold Market Commentary
A falling US dollar was a significant contributor to gold’s 6.1% return in January and another positive ‘unexplained’ factor could be continued central bank buying or expectations thereof. Gold futures have also helped support the rally and, looking forward, we expect North American gold ETFs to continue seeing positive demand in coming weeks as historical analysis shows that positioning in futures tends to lead ETFs flows by two weeks.
Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2022
Colossal central bank purchases, aided by vigorous retail investor buying and slower ETF outflows, lifted annual demand to an 11-year high. Annual gold demand (excluding OTC) jumped 18% to 4,741t, almost on a par with 2011 – a time of exceptional investment demand. The strong full-year total was aided by record Q4 demand of 1,337t.
Jewellery demand and trade: India gold market series
India, the world’s second-largest consumer of gold jewellery, has experienced rapid change over the last few years due to evolving demographics. Weddings and festivals remain the most important drivers of Indian gold jewellery demand: bridal jewellery alone accounts for at least half of the market share. Over the long term, gold jewellery demand in India will be driven by developments in economic growth, income growth and wealth distribution, as well as the rate of urbanisation.
Gold ETFs saw outflows of US$3bn in 2022
Physically-backed gold ETFs saw their holdings fall by 110t in 2022, down 3% y-o-y and equivalent to outflows of US$3bn.
Gold Outlook 2023: The global economy at a crossroads
The global economy is at an inflection point after being hit by various shocks over the past year. The biggest was induced by central banks as they stepped up their aggressive fight against inflation.
Gold Market Commentary
Gold fell 2% in October on rising bond yields and dollar strength, but it was positively impacted by higher breakeven inflation. But a weaker US dollar vs. euro and lower ETF outflows provided some support
Outflows slowed in October, but holdings now down y-t-d
Global gold ETFs saw a net outflow of 59t (US$3bn) in October, the sixth straight month of declines in holdings. In October, y-t-d changes in gold ETF holdings turned negative for the first time in 2022, now 1% lower on the year
Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022
Gold demand (excluding OTC) in Q3 was 28% higher y-o-y at 1,181t. Year-to-date (y-t-d) demand increased 18% vs the same period in 2021, returning to pre-pandemic levels.
More gold ETF outflows in September as gold remained under pressure
Global gold ETFs posted their fifth consecutive month of net outflows in September as holdings dropped by a further 95t (US$5bn). This is also the largest monthly outflow since March 2021 (107t).
