Featured Report
Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2021
Strong Q4 lifts full year demand 10%
Annual demand recovered across virtually all sectors – the notable exception being ETFs, which saw net annual outflows
Gold Outlook 2022
Gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 than those from last year as competing forces support and curtail its performance.
Gold ETFs had net outflows of US$9bn in 2021 led by North American funds
Physically backed gold ETFs saw global outflows of 173 tonnes (t) (-US$9.1bn, -4.0% AUM) in 2021. Collective gold holdings were down 5% to 3,570t for the year, while assets under management (AUM) in value terms dropped 9% to US$209bn as net outflows were compounded by a 4% contraction in the gold price. Despite considerable outflows for the year, gold ETF holdings remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels, as they posted record inflows of approximately 875t (US$48bn) during 2020.
Bullion trade: India gold market series
With very little mining and modest levels of recycling, India is heavily reliant on bullion imports to meet its domestic demand. Indian official imports have continued to grow despite high import duty with official imports averaging 760t over the last decade.
Gold ETF flows turn positive in November led by North American funds
Gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) experienced net inflows of 13.6 tonnes (t) (US$838mn, 0.4% AUM) in November, the first month of positive flows since July. Inflows into North America and Europe well exceeded outflows from Asia, which saw negative flows for the first time since May. Global gold ETF holdings rebounded from year-to-date lows, increasing to 3,578t (US$208bn) as investment demand for larger gold ETFs returned amid decades-high inflation and heightened market volatility.
Gold Market Commentary
Gold rose 2% in November based on the LBMA reference price, rallying early in the month before giving up most of those gains in the following weeks.
Gold Market Commentary
Gold rose slightly in October, despite a risk-on environment and increases in short-term bond yields
Gold Demand Trends Q3 2021
Q3 gold demand down 7% to 831t
ETF outflows outweighed continued recovery in other sectors
The drivers of Indian gold demand: India gold market series
Econometric analysis shows that rising income is the most powerful driver of Indian gold demand in the long term. This bodes well for gold demand as the economy is set to benefit from a demographic dividend: the IMF forecasts per capita GDP growth of 23% between 2022 and 2026.
Gold Market Commentary
Gold fell in September by 4% to around US$1,743/oz. This was the second consecutive month of declines, with gold now over 8% lower y-t-d. Gold wasn’t alone. Treasuries, Corporates, US- and non-US equities all fell in September possibly as a result of deleveraging. The Q2 level of margin debt for equities was at a record high. It would be understandable if some leverage has been removed as we head into the historically volatile month of October. And it’s quite possible that this de-leveraging has affected most assets (energy and industrial metals excepted).
