Gold Demand Trends Q3 2024

Central bank gold buying slowed further in Q3, to a still healthy 186t (-8% q/q). Based on statements from some central banks, there are now clearer indications that the sharp increase in the gold price since March has indeed inhibited some buying, as well as encouraging some selling among banks that manage their gold reserves tactically.

Reported buying during the quarter showed that those central banks buying more strategically continued to do so. This was further reinforced by the fact that reported selling was generally subdued.

Market feedback suggested that unreported buying also slowed during the quarter, although it remained elevated. Reported activity was dominated by a handful of banks, particularly from Central and Eastern Europe.²

• The National Bank of Poland (NBP) was the largest purchaser by some margin. During the quarter, the NBP bought 42t, lifting total gold holdings to 420t, or 16% of total reserves. Announcing the new level of holdings, Governor Adam Glapiński again reiterated the bank’s aim to increase gold’s share of currency reserves to 20%.³
• The Central Bank of Hungary (MNB) was also a significant buyer during Q3. It announced that it had increased its gold reserves to 110t from 94t in September. This was the MNB’s first addition since March 2021, when it increased gold reserves by 63t. In a statement regarding September’s purchase, the MNB noted: “Amid increasing uncertainty in the global economy, the role of gold as a safe-haven asset and a store of value is of particular importance, as it enhances confidence in the country and supports financial stability. Gold continues to be one of the most important reserve assets globally, as shown by the significant purchases of gold by central banks in recent years.”⁴
• The Reserve Bank of India continued its 2024 buying streak, adding gold to its reserves in every month during the quarter. It bought a total of 13t in Q3, marginally lower than the 18t it purchased in both Q1 and Q2. Its gold reserves have now risen to 854t, 6% higher than at the end of 2023
• The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan bought a further 12t in Q3, adding to the 13t it accumulated in H1 2024. This buying lifted gold reserves to 127t by the end of September, accounting for just under 18% of the fund’s investment portfolio.
• The Central Bank of Turkey (10t), Central Bank of Uzbekistan (9t), Central Bank of Serbia (5t), Czech National Bank (5t), Qatar Central Bank (2t), Central Bank of Jordan (1t) and Central Bank of Iraq (1t) were the other significant buyers during Q2.⁵

Compared to the previous quarter, sales were more subdued in Q3. Only three central banks reported gold reserves declining by a tonne or more. The National Bank of Kazakhstan accounted for the bulk of the reported sales (13t), while the Central Bank of the Philippines (2t) and Central Bank of Mongolia (1t) were the other, more modest, sellers.

In late September, the Central Bank of the Philippines confirmed that its gold sales this year were driven by higher prices, and form part of an active management strategy around its gold reserves.⁶ In the statement, the central bank noted that the sales did not compromise the “primary objectives for holding gold, which are insurance and safety”. While its gold reserves in tonnage terms have fallen by 18% y-t-d (to the end of August), gold’s share of total reserves has declined by less than 1% given the strong performance of gold so far this year.

A new mining law in Tanzania, effective 1 October, requires all gold mining companies and exporters to allocate at least 20% of gold for sale to the country’s central bank.⁷ This policy aims to help the central bank further diversify its international reserves. The Bank of Tanzania began buying gold domestically in the previous financial year (to June), accumulating a modest 418kg. By the end of June 2025, the central bank wants to add a further 6t this financial year.

On a y-t-d basis, central bank buying remains strong, totalling 694t, primarily boosted by the record-breaking start to the year. This is virtually in line with the same period in 2022 (-1%), which is a remarkable achievement, but well short of the record first three-quarter demand in 2023 (-17%). It now looks increasingly likely that while central banks will remain healthy net purchasers in 2024, the full year total will fall short of the previous two years.