Featured Report
November sees outflows again
Global physically backed gold ETFs reported a net loss for the first time in six months, losing US$2.1bn in November. Europe led outflows while North America recorded its fifth consecutive monthly inflow - albeit a smaller one - and stood as the only region to report positive flows during the month.
Gold Market Commentary: Under pressure
The start of November saw gold pressured by higher opportunity costs and a Republican clean sweep. Stronger bond yields and US dollar, risk-on in equities, a boost to cryptocurrencies and quelling of geopolitical risk might see a near-term retracement in gold.
North America inflows go four-for-four
Global gold ETFs saw their sixth consecutive monthly inflow in October, adding US$4.3bn during the month. North America and Asia led global inflows while European remained the only region with outflows. October flipped y-t-d gold ETF demand to the positive territory (+18t) and pushed inflows during the first ten months of 2024 to US$4.7bn.
Gold Demand Trends Q3 2024
Solid inflows into global gold ETFs in Q3 helped drive 5% y/y growth in total gold demand to a record 1,313t. This was reflected in the gold price, which reached a series of new record highs during the quarter. Jewellery demand weakened as a result, despite an uplift from India.
Gold's long-term expected return
While gold’s contribution to managing portfolio risk is well established, its contribution to portfolio return is not.
Our analysis shows that gold responds to both an economic and a financial component. And that its long-term return is not only well above inflation but more closely linked to GDP than previously understood.
North America dominates inflows
Global physically backed gold ETFs saw their fifth consecutive monthly inflow in September, attracting US$1.4bn. Inflows were concentrated in North America during the month while Europe was the only region that experienced outflows, albeit only mildly. Continuous inflows in recent months trimmed y-t-d outflows of global gold ETFs’ to flip positive to $389mn. It is worth noting that Europe is the only remaining region with y-t-d outflows.
Western demand strength persists
Global gold ETFs saw inflows four months on a trot, attracting US$2.1bn (+29t) in August. Once again, all regions experienced positive flows this month and Western gold ETFs led inflows. Non-stop inflows in recent months have narrowed global gold ETFs’ y-t-d losses to US$1.0bn (-44t). During the first eight months of 2024, Asia has registered the largest regional inflows (+US$3.5bn) while Europe (-US$3.4bn) and North America (-US$1.5bn) have witnessed notable outflows.
Western activity picked up in July
Global physically-backed gold ETFs have now seen inflows three months in a row, adding US$3.7bn in July. Notably, all regions reported positive flows this month with Western gold ETFs contributing the most.
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024
Gold reached record highs in the second quarter, driven by a combination of continued central bank buying, strong OTC investment and an upturn in Western ETF inflows later in the quarter. Conversely, the high price environment took its toll on jewellery consumption. Total global gold demand, including OTC investment, was 6% higher y/y at 1,258t.
Sustained inflows in June narrowed H1 losses
Global physically backed gold ETFs witnessed their second consecutive monthly inflows, attracting US$1.4bn in June. Inflows were widespread, with all regions seeing positive gains except for North America which experienced mild losses for a second month.
