Featured Report
Gold Demand Trends Q3 2024
Solid inflows into global gold ETFs in Q3 helped drive 5% y/y growth in total gold demand to a record 1,313t. This was reflected in the gold price, which reached a series of new record highs during the quarter. Jewellery demand weakened as a result, despite an uplift from India.
Gold's long-term expected return
While gold’s contribution to managing portfolio risk is well established, its contribution to portfolio return is not.
Our analysis shows that gold responds to both an economic and a financial component. And that its long-term return is not only well above inflation but more closely linked to GDP than previously understood.
North America dominates inflows
Global physically backed gold ETFs saw their fifth consecutive monthly inflow in September, attracting US$1.4bn. Inflows were concentrated in North America during the month while Europe was the only region that experienced outflows, albeit only mildly. Continuous inflows in recent months trimmed y-t-d outflows of global gold ETFs’ to flip positive to $389mn. It is worth noting that Europe is the only remaining region with y-t-d outflows.
Western demand strength persists
Global gold ETFs saw inflows four months on a trot, attracting US$2.1bn (+29t) in August. Once again, all regions experienced positive flows this month and Western gold ETFs led inflows. Non-stop inflows in recent months have narrowed global gold ETFs’ y-t-d losses to US$1.0bn (-44t). During the first eight months of 2024, Asia has registered the largest regional inflows (+US$3.5bn) while Europe (-US$3.4bn) and North America (-US$1.5bn) have witnessed notable outflows.
Western activity picked up in July
Global physically-backed gold ETFs have now seen inflows three months in a row, adding US$3.7bn in July. Notably, all regions reported positive flows this month with Western gold ETFs contributing the most.
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024
Gold reached record highs in the second quarter, driven by a combination of continued central bank buying, strong OTC investment and an upturn in Western ETF inflows later in the quarter. Conversely, the high price environment took its toll on jewellery consumption. Total global gold demand, including OTC investment, was 6% higher y/y at 1,258t.
Sustained inflows in June narrowed H1 losses
Global physically backed gold ETFs witnessed their second consecutive monthly inflows, attracting US$1.4bn in June. Inflows were widespread, with all regions seeing positive gains except for North America which experienced mild losses for a second month.
Flows turned positive in May
Physically backed gold ETFs saw their first monthly inflow since last May, amounting to US$529mn. A stronger gold price (+2%) and inflows pushed gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) 2% higher to US$234bn, the highest since April 2022.
Gold Market Commentary: As the buck stops, more bite for gold
Gold posted a third consecutive monthly gain in May, rising by 2% m/m to US$2,348/oz. Despite the more moderate gain compared to March and April, gold hit a new all-time high of US$2,427/oz mid-month before pulling back – likely reflecting some profit taking.
Europe drove outflows in April
Global gold ETFs saw outflows of US$2.2bn in April, further extending aggregate losses to eleven consecutive months. Ultimately, North America (+US$124mn) and Asia (+US$1.5bn) were unable to offset sizable European outflows (-US$3.7bn)
