Jewellery
5 February, 2025
- Q4 set the seal on a very weak year for global gold jewellery demand as record price levels impacted affordability
- A 12% y/y drop in Q4 demand to 547t took the annual total down to 1,877t (-11%) as unrelenting gold price strength impacted consumers’ ability to buy
- Weakness was global, although India’s 2% y/y decline showed resilience, particularly compared with China’s 24% y/y drop.
| Tonnes | 2023 | 2024 | Year-on-year % change |
|
| World total | 2,110.6 | 1,877.1 | -11 |
|
| India | 575.8 | 563.4 | -2 |
|
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 630.2 | 479.3 | -24 |
|
Full-year jewellery demand fell 11% as the rip-roaring price performance impacted volumes. With the exception of covid-stricken 2020, when demand crashed below 1,400t, we need to go back to 2009 to find the last comparable year for gold jewellery demand. In stark contrast, the sharp rise in the gold price during the year saw the value measure of jewellery demand shoot up to a record US$144bn (+9%).
The Q4 picture was similar: global demand was down 12% y/y, sinking to a four-year low for a fourth quarter, while value reached a new record high of US$47bn.
By far the largest contributor to the weakness in volume was China, which, for the second time in three years, ceded its position to India as the largest jewellery market.
China
Despite a seasonal quarterly improvement in Chinese Q4 gold jewellery demand, the y/y comparison showed a sharp decline. Demand for the full year fell to 479t, 26% below the 10-year average and 10% lower than 2020 when demand was ravaged by COVID.
The environment for Chinese jewellery demand was very challenging throughout 2024, hit by a combination of poor consumer confidence amid declining income growth and surging gold prices. The jewellery retail sector has faced challenges and stores have been closing throughout the year.
Although Golden Week sales in early October were disappointing, Q4 demand improved by 4% q/q as restocking activity picked up in December ahead of the calendar New Year and Spring Festival sales boosts. But the outlook remains pessimistic, given China’s slowing economy, and the shift towards lighter weight items continues.
To protect margins, retailers have been promoting products with higher added-value and major brands continue to develop exclusive special collections to differentiate from their competitors. Fashionable designs integrating gold with alternative colourful materials including gems, enamel and even feathers, are attracting young consumers.
Table 2: Jewellery demand in selected countries, tonnes
| 2023 | 2024 | Annual y/y % change |
Q4'23 | Q4'24 | Quarterly y/y % change |
|||
| India | 575.8 | 563.4 |
|
-2 | 199.6 | 189.8 |
|
-5 |
| Pakistan | 21.1 | 17.5 |
|
-17 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
|
-10 |
| Sri Lanka | 10.5 | 5.8 |
|
-45 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
|
-52 |
| Greater China | 671.9 | 511.4 |
|
-24 | 160.9 | 114.3 |
|
-29 |
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 630.2 | 479.3 |
|
-24 | 148.4 | 106.2 |
|
-28 |
| Hong Kong SAR | 37.4 | 27.9 |
|
-25 | 11.3 | 7.1 |
|
-37 |
| Taiwan Province of China | 4.4 | 4.2 |
|
-4 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
|
-17 |
| Japan | 16.3 | 15.1 |
|
-7 | 4.7 | 4.2 |
|
-10 |
| Indonesia | 25.1 | 22.8 |
|
-9 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
|
-7 |
| Malaysia | 11.3 | 11.5 |
|
2 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
|
-15 |
| Singapore | 7.2 | 6.8 |
|
-5 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
|
-20 |
| Korea, Republic of | 12.2 | 11.7 |
|
-5 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
|
-10 |
| Thailand | 9.2 | 9.0 |
|
-2 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
|
-3 |
| Vietnam | 15.1 | 13.2 |
|
-13 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
|
-13 |
| Australia | 11.7 | 8.9 |
|
-24 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
|
-10 |
| Middle East | 171.5 | 157.0 |
|
-8 | 41.0 | 40.8 |
|
0 |
| Saudi Arabia | 38.1 | 35.0 |
|
-8 | 8.7 | 9.8 |
|
12 |
| UAE | 39.7 | 34.7 |
|
-13 | 10.3 | 8.8 |
|
-14 |
| Kuwait | 14.3 | 12.3 |
|
-14 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
|
-7 |
| Egypt | 26.7 | 26.1 |
|
-2 | 6.0 | 6.3 |
|
5 |
| Islamic Republic of Iran | 27.3 | 26.7 |
|
-2 | 6.1 | 6.8 |
|
10 |
| Other Middle East | 25.3 | 22.3 |
|
-12 | 6.1 | 5.6 |
|
-8 |
| Turkey | 42.2 | 40.9 |
|
-3 | 10.9 | 12.0 |
|
10 |
| Russian Federation | 39.7 | 41.2 |
|
4 | 12.1 | 12.4 |
|
2 |
| Americas | 180.1 | 175.0 |
|
-3 | 63.7 | 61.4 |
|
-4 |
| United States | 136.9 | 132.1 |
|
-3 | 49.1 | 47.1 |
|
-4 |
| Canada | 14.4 | 13.8 |
|
-4 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
|
-4 |
| Mexico | 13.6 | 13.5 |
|
-1 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
|
-3 |
| Brazil | 15.2 | 15.6 |
|
2 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
|
1 |
| Europe ex CIS | 70.1 | 67.5 |
|
-4 | 30.2 | 29.0 |
|
-4 |
| France | 14.2 | 13.8 |
|
-2 | 6.0 | 5.9 |
|
-2 |
| Germany | 10.7 | 9.8 |
|
-8 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
|
-9 |
| Italy | 18.7 | 17.8 |
|
-5 | 9.4 | 9.0 |
|
-5 |
| Spain | 8.3 | 8.6 |
|
3 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
|
4 |
| United Kingdom | 18.2 | 17.4 |
|
-4 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
|
-4 |
| Switzerland | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Austria | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other Europe | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total above | 1,891.0 | 1,678.8 |
|
-11 | 557.3 | 493.5 |
|
-11 |
| Other & stock change | 219.6 | 198.3 |
|
-10 | 63.6 | 53.6 |
|
-16 |
| World total | 2,110.6 | 1,877.1 |
|
-11 | 620.9 | 547.1 |
|
-12 |
Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
Looking ahead, with gold prices having reached a fresh record high in early 2025, we expect Chinese gold jewellery demand to remain weak, albeit the rate of decline will likely slow. Continued industry consolidation will likely pressure wholesale gold jewellery demand and, should the domestic economy continue to slow, we would expect discretionary consumer to shrink further. This could be offset to some degree if we see cuts to benchmark lending rates, which should support growth, and if gold prices stabilise.
India
After posting the strongest third quarter since 2015 (following the sharp cut in import duty), gold jewellery demand in India lost some momentum in the final quarter. Q4 demand was 5% lower y/y due to continued strength in the gold price. Full-year demand was 2% lower at 563t.
The fact that annual demand only shrank by 2% during a year in which the gold price reached multiple record highs is testament to the resilience of gold jewellery demand in India, highlighting both the strength of the response to the July duty cut and the country’s relatively healthy economic growth. Many consumers front-loaded their gold jewellery buying in late Q3 when the duty cut effectively offset much of the recent price increase.
Demand reached exceptional values in 2024: annual demand was valued at INR3.6tn with around 70% of that occurring in the second half of the year.
Demand in the fourth quarter was concentrated between late October – peak Diwali festival buying season – and November, when the gold price saw a notable correction coinciding with the onset of the wedding season. Nevertheless, demand remained lacklustre due to high and fluctuating prices. And in mid-December, the onset of an inauspicious period in the Hindu calendar put many consumers on hold during the closing weeks of the year.
We expect gold jewellery demand to recover gradually from mid-January, driven by wedding-related buying, although this would also require an element of price stability. Any periods of volatility in the gold price would be expected to curb demand.
Middle East and Turkey
Gold jewellery demand in Turkey jumped to its highest in Q4 since 2016, primarily driven by investment motives. After reaching new record highs in October, the gold price saw a subsequent healthy correction, which offered buying opportunities and spurred demand. Despite the Q4 boost, a slight slowdown in annual demand was largely attributed to the surging gold price. Nevertheless, full year consumption was in line with the average of the prior 10 years at 41t.
Full-year demand was universally lower across the Middle East due to the combination of the gold price and the Q3 Indian gold import duty cut. The latter hit demand among Indian tourists as it reduced the price advantage of buying gold abroad rather than at home. The UAE was particularly affected by this, given the importance of Indian tourists to that market.
The profile of Q4 demand in Iran was similar to that of Turkey, with consumers making the most of the price pullback. Q4 y/y growth in Egypt, meanwhile, was due to falling inflation; this, and the November price drop, boosting consumer confidence.
US and Europe
Q4 represented the 11th consecutive quarter of y/y losses in US jewellery demand, which was the weakest fourth quarter for seven years. Full-year demand consequently hit a five-year low as a combination of record gold prices and persistent cost-of-living pressures affected jewellery consumption. Lower income groups in particular are feeling the pinch, as rising rents and grocery bills undermine discretionary spending.
On a value basis, the US saw record levels in both Q4 and 2024 as a whole, of US$4bn and US$10bn, respectively.
European consumers remained beset by poor sentiment and a weak economic backdrop, which took their toll on demand. Regional gold jewellery consumption sank to its lowest since 2020. Germany and the UK were the weakest performing markets.
Value measures in Europe mirrored trends seen elsewhere, reaching record levels for the region of €2bn and €5bn for Q4 and FY 2024, respectively.
ASEAN markets
Gold prices throughout 2024 posed a significant challenge to consumers across our covered ASEAN markets. Annual declines were most notable in Vietnam and Indonesia, both impacted by high gold prices and constrained discretionary spending. In the former, a government crackdown on tax evasion was a further deterrent, while in the latter, consumers continued to shift towards lower carat items.
Thailand was a little more resilient, seeing only a modest y/y decline. A robust domestic economy, buoyed in particular by healthy tourist numbers, helped to limit losses in demand.
Although Malaysia saw a modest increase in annual 2024 demand, this was entirely due to a strong first quarter. In contrast, the market weakened considerably during the second half – particularly in Q4 as sharp domestic currency depreciation magnified the October gold price rise.
Rest of Asia
Jewellery consumption remained under pressure in Japan, reflecting both higher retail prices and the inflation environment more generally. Stubborn core consumer inflation hit households and impacted discretionary spending on items like gold jewellery.
South Korean gold jewellery demand reached a fresh record low for our data series. Gold’s price strength was amplified by domestic currency weakness as the Korean won weakened sharply against the US dollar, most notably in the fourth quarter when the country was hit by political instability, which rocked its financial markets. Together with slower-than-expected economic growth, this affected consumers’ willingness to purchase.
Australia
After six consecutive quarterly y/y losses in Australian gold jewellery demand, annual demand sank to a four-year low. Continued record price levels and a challenging consumer environment have been responsible for the decline.
