Gold ETF Flows: January 2025

Europe sees largest inflow in years

Published:

Note: this publication was revised on 11 February, 2025 to address an erroneous figure in the highlights section. The correct figure for “global gold ETF holdings” is 3,253t.

 

Highlights

  • Global gold ETFs kicked off 2025 with positive flows, led by Europe, while North America saw outflows.
  • Following the second consecutive monthly inflow and supported by a higher gold price, global gold ETFs’ total AUM rose to US$294bn and holdings bounced to 3,253t.
  • Global gold trading volumes rose 20% in January, driven by increased OTC and exchange volumes.

January in review

Global physically backed gold ETFs1 saw net inflows during the first month of 2025, adding US$3bn in January (Table 1).2 The most notable shift comes from Europe: while it led global outflows during most of 2024, it is now dominating inflows. Despite gold’s strong performance, North American investors remained net sellers of gold ETFs in the month, while Asia and the other regions saw limited inflows. By the end of January, the total asset under management (AUM) reached US$294bn, another month-end record, and collective holdings continued to rebound (+34t).

Regional overview

North American funds slide for two consecutive months, losing US$499mn in January. Investors stayed busy this month particularly around President Trump’s inauguration, and the subsequent news that followed around tariffs, rates, and the dollar. Heading into the inauguration we saw increased option activity and positive flows into North American funds, along with a rising gold price. However, these flows quickly reversed in the week of Trump’s inauguration as investors likely captured profits amid a record-level gold price and from shifts in positioning as Trump began to release executive orders, while also providing colour on future policy decisions.

A pick-up in demand into the last week of the month was unable to offset earlier outflows. The final week of the month saw the US Fed keep rates unchanged as expected, which had limited impact on investor expectations of yields.3 But we believe the rattled equity market – particularly widespread tech stock selloffs related to the AI buzz around DeepSeek – and the gold price’s record-breaking performance attracted investor attention.4

European funds saw their largest monthly inflow since March 2022, adding US$3.4bn during January. UK and Germany dominated inflows. In the UK, government bond yields fell notably during the second half of January as easing inflation pressure and soft economic data prints raised investor expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England during 2025.5 Reduced opportunity cost of holding gold, alongside a robust gold price performance, drove local investors into gold ETFs.

In Germany, political uncertainties ahead of the earlier-than-scheduled parliamentary elections in late February, pessimistic growth outlook from the government and risks related to US trade policies all contributed to higher safe-haven demand, drawing local investors to gold.6 France, which too faces political instability and weaker growth prospects, also experienced notable inflows as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Asian funds added US$57mn in January, mainly from Indian funds. Indian gold ETFs experienced record inflows (+US$400mn) in January, as investors redirected cash to gold amid ongoing global uncertainty and further weakness in domestic equity markets. Yet China saw notable outflows: the stronger-than-expected Q4 and 2024 GDP growth may have raised investor risk appetite, limiting expectations of future rate cuts and supporting the local currency. As a result, alongside potential profit-taking activities, investors dialled back their gold ETF holdings. Funds in other regions saw inflows of US$66mn, driven primarily by Australia and South Africa.

 

Gold trading volumes rise

Gold trading volumes averaged US$264bn/day across global markets in January, 20% higher m/m. The increase can be mainly attributed to surging volumes at COMEX (+60%, m/m), which pushed activities at exchanges around the globe 39% higher m/m – as the gold price strength attracted traders. Meanwhile, the OTC market (+10%, m/m) and global gold ETFs (+23%, m/m) also saw increased trading during the month.

Total net longs of COMEX’s gold futures ended January at 952t, a 25% m/m increase. Money managers increased their net long positions by 26% to 717t by the end of the month. We believe the gold price strength and tariff-related fears7 were primary drivers of increased long positioning.

 

Gold ETF flows

Data as of

Demand captures changes in global/regional gold holdings; fund flows capture the net amount of money (in USD) that comes in or out of gold ETFs globally/regionally. See methodology note.

 **Note: As of 1 July 2021, this dataset now includes several enhancements, which we believe improve the accuracy and usability of the data.

  • Fund aggregation: funds that include more than one asset or sub-asset class are now grouped and displayed as a single product. This allows tracking of total assets of individual funds over time more easily. This change applies mainly to various European funds (and a few other regions) which, for example, offer different listings of the same fund structure and that were previously treated in our universe, for simplicity, as distinct products.
  • Holdings accuracy: the estimation of gold holdings by converting net asset values (NAVs) of the different funds to tonnage now uses relevant regional gold price benchmarks for funds in China and India, which we believe is more precise. Previously, for ease of calculation, we used the LBMA Gold Price PM for all funds. Thus, differences between those benchmarks and the LBMA Gold Price, whether due to timing or due to local premiums, could result in a less accurate estimation of the gold holdings. This was especially noticeable for funds listed in China and India during days when the gold price experienced significant moves or there were regional holidays. 
  • Previously, changes in tonnes were calculated by converting a fund’s AUM (in USD) into gold holdings (in tonnes) and computing the difference over periods. However, currency movements and large daily and weekly gold price movements could distort the difference between tonnage change and US-dollar fund flows during short time horizons. We therefore adjusted tonnage change as a function of fund flows versus AUM and replaced the tonnage change field with fund flows (tonnes).
  • Now, for most funds, we estimate US-dollar fund flows, as described in section 2.3.2 below, and then convert those flows to fund flows (tonnes).
    Fund flows (tonnes) and US-dollar fund flows will now represent a more aligned explanation of investment demand for gold ETFs, while the true holdings of a fund, in US dollars and tonnage, will remain a close estimate, impacted by the currency and price volatility described above.
  • Based on our initial analysis, the changes are not likely to have a material long-term effect on historical information, particularly on a global or regional aggregate basis, but will adjust short-term fluctuations that can sometimes occur due to input data and timing variations.
  • As of 1st September the fund flows data includes an additional tab showing tonnage flows (Delta tonnes) for monthly and daily periods.

These changes may lead to some – generally minor – revisions of historical data.

Footnotes

  1. We define gold ETFs as regulated securities that hold gold in physical form. These include open-ended funds traded on regulated exchanges and other regulated products such as closed-end funds and mutual funds. A complete list is included in the gold ETF section of Goldhub.com.

  2. We track gold ETF assets in two ways: the quantity of gold they hold, generally measured in tonnes, and the equivalent value of those holdings in US dollars (AUM). We also monitor how these fund assets change through time by looking at two key metrics: demand and fund flows. For more detail, see our ETF methodology note.

  3. For more, see: Fed rate decision January 2025: Fed holds rates steady, takes less confident view on inflation

  4. For more, see: Nvidia plunges more than 11% on competition from China's DeepSeek

  5. For more, see: February Bank of England rate cut a 'sure bet' as growth stumbles and inflation falls | This is Money

  6. For more, see: Germany's government slashes its economic growth forecast for this year to 0.3% | AP News

  7. For more, see: Gold stockpiling in New York leads to London shortage | FT