Ray Jia

Gold prices rebounded in December, concluding 2019 as the best year for CNY-denominated gold in nine years.

On 25th January 2020, people throughout China will celebrate the start of a new year – the most important festival in the Chinese lunar calendar. This will kick off Year of the Rat and begin another rotation of the twelve zodiac signs. Most people are already in a festive mood, and, as a result, so is China’s gold market.

China’s first exchange-traded gold future’s option was listed on 20th December 2019 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). While gold options already existed in China, these were traded over-the-counter (OTC) on the OTC market platform at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and linked to physical gold products.

Co-hosted by China Gold Association, World Gold Council, Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold and Jewellery Association, the 2019 Annual Precious Metals Conference was held in Shanghai on 10th and 11th December. Over 400 gold industry leaders and representatives from China and other regions participated. Here are a few key takeaways.

Summary

• The Shanghai Gold Benchmark price (PM) extended its decline in November. The appreciating USDCNY has again made CNY-denominated gold prices weaker than the dollar gold price, resulting in another drop in local gold premium last month.
• Driven by elevated price volatility, Au(T+D)’s trading volume was higher m-o-m. Meanwhile, the industry’s stocking ahead of the Chinese New Year’s Festival led to a higher Au9999 trading volume and gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in November. • During the first ten months of 2019, China’s gold imports dropped by 41% y-o-y.
• While some investors have stepped away, Chinese gold ETFs’ gold holdings stabilised around the highest level since last October.
• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its gold reserve unchanged at 1,948t in November.

• The Shanghai Gold Benchmark price fell slightly in October as the appreciating USDCNY offset the rise in US dollar-denominated gold price. This pushed the local gold price to a discount, the first in 12 months
• Impacted by the weak performances of CNY-denominated gold prices, speculative demand dropped further. Trading volume of Au9999 continued its decline during the month on weaker physical gold demand
• During the first ten months of 2019, China’s gold imports dropped by 41% y-o-y
• Three new gold-backed ETFs were approved in October, raising the total number of gold-backed ETF products in China to seven
• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) didn’t purchase any gold in October, leaving its gold reserves at 1,948t.

The Beijing International Jewellery Fair kicked off on 14th November, attracting thousands of exhibitors from over 20 different countries and regions. On the coldest day so far this year in Beijing, exhibitors shared the hottest trends in the gold jewellery industry.

• The Shanghai Gold Benchmark price saw a modest decline in September, with the local gold premium falling sharply due to the stabilising currency and increasing gold imports.
• Led by the declining gold price and the soft physical demand, both Au(T+D) and Au9999’s trading volume dropped last month while loadouts from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) levelled off.
• After hitting the lowest level since 2017 in July, gold imports to China rebounded in August.
• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 6t to its gold reserves in September. After ten consecutive purchases, the PBoC now holds 1,948t gold in its reserves.

• Inflation is on the rise in China, reaching 2.8% in August 2019, the highest in 18 months; leading economists expect it to rise further by the end of the year
• African swine flu has wiped out a third of China’s pig livestock since last August, contributing substantially to the rising inflation
• Looking back at history, when inflation rose above 3% the nominal return of the local gold price has averaged 17%

• In August, Shanghai Gold Benchmark (PM) rose 11% to 355 yuan/gram and the local gold premium peaked at a six-year high.
• While Au(T+D)’s trading volume in August surged to a new all-time high, gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) declined again last month.
• Gold imports dropped to 44t in July, the lowest since 2017.
• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 6t to its gold reserves in August.

In recent years, expansion into tier three and four cities has been a major strategic focus for many Chinese jewellery retailers. Chow Tai Fook (CFT), a leading retailer based in Hong Kong, added 251 points of sales (POS) in lower tier cities in 2018 compared to only 50 in tier one cities. Lao Feng Xiang, another large jeweller with 3,521 POS domestically, also prioritised expansion into lower tier cities.

• Chinese gold prices rose modestly in July 
• Au(T+D)’s trading volume in July extended its June surge
• The local gold premium saw a much lower volatility 
• Imports registered another decline, dropping to 55t in July
• Gold withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) experienced the first rise in four months 
• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 10t to its gold reserves

Recycled gold is an important source of gold supply . In 2018, the volume of recycled gold reached 1,168t, accounting for over 25% of total supply globally. Recycled gold is also an important source of supply in China, amounting to 146t, or 20% of domestic supply in 2018. Recently, China’s recycled gold market has experienced some exciting developments which could improve the efficiency and transparency of the industry. 

Summary

• Shanghai Gold Benchmark price hit 319.2 yuan/gram – highest level since its introduction in April 2016
• Au(T+D)’s trading volume in June reached second highest level on record – 2,062t
• The local gold premium rose sharply 
• Imports continued to slide in May, dropping to 69t
• Gold withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell again last month 
• PBOC added a further 10t to its reserves in June

Having risen over 3% in May, the loco-China gold prices continued to soar in June. Au(T+D), the most liquid and margin-traded gold contract at Shanghai Gold Exchange, rose 8.71%, the best monthly performance in 3 years.