Ray Jia

- The local gold price’s unprecedent surge and amplified equity market volatilities helped Chinese gold ETFs attract their largest monthly inflow ever
- China’s wholesale gold demand continued to exhibit seasonal patterns, witnessing a mild fall m/m yet remaining well below the long- term average
- The stabilizing gold price, seasonality and positive impact from various stimulus may bode well for gold consumption in coming months

China has recently announced aggressive stimuli to shore up consumer confidence and support growth. Based on our models we believe the potential improvement in GDP will benefit gold demand in China. However, gold investment appetite may face competition from other assets including equities and property as the economy recovers.

China’s wholesale gold demand rebounded seasonally in September, yet total gold withdrawals y-t-d remain weak compared to previous years. Chinese gold ETFs saw positive flows last month, pushing their y-t-d inflows to the highest ever, outpacing all other countries.

Geopolitical risks have been elevated in recent years. And our analysis shows that spikes in geopolitical risk usually lead to equity market sell offs. While risk assets suffer during these periods, gold has delivered robust returns as an effective portfolio risk diversifier. And we believe gold can continue to benefit investors’ portfolios in today’s world as a geopolitical risk hedge and return enhancer following its stunning performance y-t-d.

In August, China’s wholesale gold demand saw a seasonal m/m bounce. But it remains well below the long-term average amid the record level gold price and economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, Chinese gold ETFs saw their first monthly outflow since November 2023.

In July, China’s wholesale gold demand remained weak and the local gold price premium trended down further. However, gold ETFs saw their eighth consecutive monthly inflows, pushing the total assets under management and holdings to record highs. And China’s official gold holdings remained unchanged.

In June, China’s wholesale gold demand remained weak, ending H1 with little changes compared to 2023. Chinese gold ETFs saw their seventh consecutive monthly inflow, pushing both of their assets under management and holdings to record highs. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China reported no gold reserve changes.

In May, China’s wholesale gold demand fell as gold jewellery consumption and bar and coin sales cooled. Meanwhile, the local central bank didn’t report any gold purchase during the month. But the bright spot came from the gold ETF market which extended the inflow streak to six months.

In April, China’s wholesale gold demand climbed further as strong investment demand canceled off jewellery sector weaknesses. Chinese gold ETFs registered their strongest month on record whilst the local central bank announced gold purchases for the 18th consecutive month.

In March, China’s official gold holdings rose for the 17th consecutive month and inflows into local gold ETFs continued. Meanwhile, withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell slightly, leading to a lower local gold price premium. Nonetheless, wholesale demand recorded the highest Q1 total since 2019.

Wholesale gold demand in China was healthy during February and the local central bank reported its 16th consecutive monthly gold purchase. Meanwhile, Chinese gold ETFs continued to attract investors. Supported by steady demand, the local gold price premium stayed elevated. But gold consumption may cool in coming months due to seasonality and the record-level gold price.

The extended 2024 Chinese New Year’s holiday saw healthy gold consumption. Looking ahead, our model predicts stable gold jewellery demand in 2024. And gold bar and coin investment may stay above their long-term average, with some further upside potential.

During the first month of 2024, wholesale gold demand in China jumped ahead of the Chinese New Year’s holiday in mid-February, recording the strongest January ever and lifting the local gold price premium. Meanwhile, the PBoC stretched their gold buying spree to 15 months and gold ETFs in the region once again attracted inflows.

In November, China's wholesale gold demand improved and the nation's official gold reserves rose for the 13th consecutive month.

The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB bounced higher, both recording the strongest monthly gains since March. The local gold price premium fell from its record high, possibly driven by weaker gold demand during the month.