Mukesh Kumar

The international gold price shot up by 3% in December to US$1,812/oz, supported by expectations of a less-hawkish US Fed in the light of lower yields and dollar weakness.

The international gold price jumped by 7.4% in November to US$1,760/oz, boosted by lower yields and dollar weakness.

The domestic gold price diverged from the international gold price: the MCX Gold Spot price rose marginally by 0.2% compared to a 2% decline in the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD

Healthy retail demand in September drove the local price briefly into premium, but market dynamics generated a discount for much of the month. Indian gold ETFs witnessed a marginal net inflow of 0.4t in September as a domestic gold price correction enticed investors back into gold  
 

Retail demand is gradually picking up, supported by festivals during the month and ahead of the wedding season. Official imports are expected to pick up during August on the back of improved retail demand.

The domestic gold price declined by 0.7% during June, ending the month at Rs50,809/10g. Retail demand remained muted as the wedding season ended and sowing activity picked up with the onset of the monsoon.

On 30 June, India’s Ministry of Finance notified the industry that basic custom duty (BCD) on gold would increase from 1 July.

Retail demand remained strong y‑o‑y during the first three weeks of May due to robust Akshaya Tritiya sales, wedding demand and the lower base period of 2021. But demand softened during the last week of the month due to a higher gold price and fewer auspicious marriage dates.

So far in 2022, central banks’ monthly gold reported activity has been bobbing between net purchases and sales linked to a fairly small number of banks. As such, any significant purchase or sale from those can tip the balance in a given month.

The international gold price declined in April, led by interest rate volatility and dollar strength. The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD fell by 0.4% and the MCX Gold Spot in rupees (INR) rose by 1% over the month.

Global central bank gold reserves fell by 4t in March (based on latest available data), flipping back to net sales following healthy net purchases of 32.3t in February

Gold prices extended their gain in March, led by higher inflationary pressures and rising geo-political risks. The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the MCX Gold Spot in rupees (INR) rose by 1.1% and 1.7% respectively over the month.

Retail demand weakened as a sudden spike in the gold price resulted in the postponement of gold purchases in the second half of the month.

Retail demand remained soft in January due to the reintroduction of COVID restrictions, a lack of auspicious wedding dates and a higher gold price in the second half of the month.

Global official gold reserves increased by 14.2t in December according to data released by the IMF. Healthy purchases from Turkey and Uzbekistan lifted gross purchases during the month. This marked the tenth monthly purchases for 2021.