Ray Jia

The local gold price premium soared to unseen levels in September and the PBoC extended its gold reserve rising streak to 11 months.

China’s local gold price premium has rocketed to previously unseen levels, reaching US$121/oz on 14 September. And August’s US$41/oz monthly average already marked a record since the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s establishment in 2002.

日本銀行のマイナス金利政策終了が近いという観測が強まり、日本国債の変動幅と利回りがともに拡大. 
日本国債は依然として、日本の投資家のポートフォリオにおける重要な戦略的資産だが、現在の状況を踏まえると、金は有効な補完資産になりうる.
ワールド ゴールド カウンシルの分析によれば、金を5％配分することにより、債券と株式に投資する日本のポートフォリオのパフォーマンスが改善する可能性がある.
 

Expectations for the end of the BoJ’s negative policy rate intensified

The BoJ relaxed its yield curve control (YCC) program in late July. Governor Ueda’s first surprise move since taking the wheel: he effectively doubled the YCC’s upper limit to 1%, while keeping the policy rate unchanged at -0.1%. This led to surges in both the 10-year JGB yield and its volatility. 

Gold prices quoted in USD and RMB headed in different directions in August. Major factors including rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar weighed on the international gold price in USD. But the Chinese currency weakness, which depreciated by 2% against the dollar in the month, led to a mild increase in the RMB gold price.

Despite June weakness, the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB ended the first half of 2023 higher by 5% and 9% respectively – the depreciation of RMB against the dollar over the period contributed to the significant difference.

Gold prices failed to extend the momentum of the previous month. Factors such as a strong dollar and rising yields weighed on the USD gold price in the month. But due to a 3% depreciation in the local currency against the dollar, the SHAUPM in RMB strengthened.

Key highlights:

• The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD rose by 0.2% in April while the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB saw a 0.7% gain, due mainly to a depreciating RMB against the USD 
• The average Shanghai-London gold price premium fell sharply in April amid easing local supply and demand conditions

今年（2023年）の「春闘」では、背景にインフレ上昇がある中、賃上げに関しては明るい見通しとなっています。

The 2023 “Shunto” sent positive signals to Japanese employees regarding possible pay increases amid a backdrop of elevated inflation in the region. Shunto – the wage negotiations between major corporations and unions that take place every March – provides pay level guidance for all Japanese employers, large and small.

Your monthly update on gold in China covering gold prices, wholesale demand, central bank buying and more. 

Gold prices weakened in February. There was a 5% decline in the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD during the month. Meanwhile, due to a 3% depreciation in the RMB against the dollar, the SHAUPM in RMB saw a smaller fall of 1%

Gold prices kicked 2023 off to a strong start. The SHAUPM in RMB registered a 2% gain in January and the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD rose by 5%.

Intensifying expectations of a less-hawkish US Fed bode well for international gold prices during the last month of 2022. While the SHAUPM in RMB rose 1% in December, the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD capped a 3% gain.