Insights

I was pleased to speak at Fund Selector Asia's recent Spotlight on Alternatives virtual event. Watch the replay to hear my perspective on topics including: gold's characteristics, and why they may be attractive to investors in alternative assets, what makes gold a strategic asset and the drivers of gold performance.

As Krishan Gopaul’s blog post last week pointed out, central banks have been buying gold during the first four months of 2021. Over that period, we estimate that the official sector has added 150-200 tonnes of gold. 

The World Gold Council is launching the Central Bank Dashboard, an innovative web-based tool that allows the comparison of central bank gold reserve holdings across regions, income levels, foreign exchange arrangement and other qualitative and quantitative indicators.

The Central Bank Dashboard provides users with the flexibility to visualise trends in gold and foreign exchange reserve holdings across a multitude of vantage points. 

As Basel III comes into force, we look at the impact of the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) on the gold market.

There has been much debate about the implications of Basel III on the bullion industry. What is clear is that the under the current rules the cost to banks of holding gold on balance sheet will increase – the NSFR requires 85% of required stable funding. 

We have written before about how, after a more inconsistent picture for central bank demand in the second half of 2020, our expectation was for continued net purchases in 2021 but at a more moderate pace than in previous record-setting years. So, how is that expectation holding up?

We have published a new report – Central bank domestic ASGM purchase programmes – which discusses the growing trend of central banks buying gold from domestically-produced sources, and the role that these institutions can play in developing and formalising the Artisanal Small-Scale Gold Mining (ASGM) sector in their countries.

Last month Hungary tripled its gold reserves. The decision by the National Bank of Hungary (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, MNB) to increase its gold reserves to 94.5 tonnes, a historic high, follows a 10-fold increase in Hungary’s gold holdings in the last quarter of 2018. 

Our monthly central bank statistics have been updated today, to include initial February data reported by the IMF and respective central banks. Collectively, central banks tipped back into net purchases during the month.

What does the latest central bank gold reserves data tell us, and does it help make an assessment on the prospects for central bank demand in 2021?

Following net purchases in October, central banks returned to net selling in November. Global official reserves decline by 6.5t during the month. Like August and September, when central banks were also net sellers, this was the result of continued moderate buying being offset by a few sizeable sales.

Following two consecutive months of net sales, central banks resumed buying in October: global official gold reserves rose by 22.8t on a net basis.

In August, central banks switched from net buyers to net sellers for the first time in around a year and a half.

Our central bank gold statistics were published today, and the latest IMF data makes for a very interesting read. Available data for July highlights central bank net purchases of 8.8t – the lowest level of monthly net purchases since December 2018 (-1.5t).

The gold market has continued to take steps towards greater transparency by improving the availability and accessibility of data. Today, another step forward is taken as the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the Bank of England, and the commercial vaults have announced they will now be publishing gold and silver holdings within the vaults in London with a one-month lag, compared to the previous three month lag.

Despite a general belief that Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) do not invest in gold, our engagement with these institutions in recent years has increasingly shown that many SWFs do incorporate gold in their portfolios for diversification, capital preservation, and other factors.

Our Director of Central Banks and Public Policy, Kurtulus Taskale Diamondopoulos, joins Pierre Ortlieb, economist at OMFIF, to discuss central bank gold reserves management amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Central bank net purchases totalled 39.8t in May, in line with net purchases in March and April, and above the monthly average of 35t over the first four months of this year.

Our central banks team, in partnership with Yougov, recently concluded the 2020 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey. This year’s survey, which saw a jump in the number of responses, shows strong signs of an increase in gold’s relevance for central bank reserve management.

In April, central banks bought another 31.6t based on IMF data. While the monthly increase is not far off the 6-month average (34.7t), it is 24% lower than March and 35% lower than April 2019.

In February, central banks bought a net 36 tonnes (t) of gold, almost a third higher than January’s net purchases, but 52% lower y-o-y. This brings y-t-d net purchases to 64.5t, 44% lower than the 116.1t of net purchases over the first two months of 2019.