The extended 2024 Chinese New Year’s holiday saw healthy gold consumption. Looking ahead, our model predicts stable gold jewellery demand in 2024. And gold bar and coin investment may stay above their long-term average, with some further upside potential.
During the first month of 2024, wholesale gold demand in China jumped ahead of the Chinese New Year’s holiday in mid-February, recording the strongest January ever and lifting the local gold price premium. Meanwhile, the PBoC stretched their gold buying spree to 15 months and gold ETFs in the region once again attracted inflows.
International and domestic gold prices alike retreated in January. Prices nevertheless remain high and this has been impacting gold jewellery demand in India. Gold imports too have moderated. Domestic gold prices began to trade at a premium to international prices since late January following nearly three months of trading at a discount. Meanwhile, the RBI made the highest monthly purchase of gold in eighteen months in January and Indian gold ETFs continue to see inflows.
Last week, we held an investor webinar with a focus on geopolitics, macro-economics and asset allocation in 2024. Joe Cavatoni, our Market Strategist for the Americas was joined for an insightful dialogue with two seasoned investment experts.
Reported global central bank gold reserves, via the IMF and publicly available sources, rose by a net 39t in December. Gross sales (2t) were again dwarfed by gross purchases (41t), highlighting the strength of buying.*
