Adam Perlaky
Former Senior Analyst, Americas World Gold CouncilDrivers behind the recent gold rally
Juan Carlos Artigas
Global Head of Research World Gold CouncilKey trends to watch as we conclude 2019
As 2019 comes to an end and 2020 begins, we believe that:
- Financial and geopolitical uncertainty combined with low interest rates will likely continue supporting gold investment demand
- Net gold purchases by central banks will likely remain robust even if they are lower than the record highs seen in recent quarters
- Momentum and speculative positioning may keep gold price volatility high
- Gold price volatility and expectations of weaker economic growth may result in softer consumer demand near term
- But structural economic reforms in India and China will support demand in the long term.
Note: our comprehensive annual Outlook will be published by mid-January 2020.
Dr Lu Zhengwei
Chief Economist of China Industrial Bank, Chief Economist of Huafu Securities and Vice Chairman of China Industrial Bank Research LimitedCurrency crises, over-leverage and low rates – potential drivers of a gold bull market
The gold price has risen more than 15% this year against a backdrop of falling interest rates, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Dr Lu Zhengwei, Chief Economist of China Industrial Bank, Chief Economist of Huafu Securities and Vice Chairman of China Industrial Bank Research Limited, looks back in time to forecast the future for gold.
Mukesh Kumar
Former Senior Analyst, India World Gold CouncilGold’s rising status in the Persian Gulf
The UAE is an important jewellery market in the Middle East: its ten-year average jewellery demand in 2018 at 54.7t, only was second to Saudi Arabia. However, conditions in the UAE have been tough for gold in recent years.
Louise Street
Senior Markets Analyst World Gold CouncilRetail gold insights 2019
Alistair Hewitt
Former Head of Market Intelligence World Gold CouncilGold: thriving on lower interest rates
It’s old news that the world economy is suffering. Ongoing trade tensions between the US China (and elsewhere too), the draining Brexit saga, as well as a myriad of other geopolitical uncertainties, have taken their toll. Global growth is slowing, and investors are downbeat on world economic prospects. Recession in many major economies is now a real possibility... As a result, central banks around the world have been busy cutting rates.
Krishan Gopaul
Senior Analyst, EMEA World Gold CouncilThe Big Short(age of good news)
Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund released their updated World Economic Outlook. And, if investors were looking for any seeds of optimism, may I suggest reading The Art of Happiness by the Dalai Lama instead?
Harry Tchilinguirian
Former Head of Commodity Research BNP ParibasBNP Paribas: The outlook for gold as Fed rates fall
The US Federal Reserve has cut rates twice in recent months and the market expects more of the same, as economic conditions become increasingly uncertain in the US and across the globe. Gold has already benefited from the shift in sentiment and Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas, believes it will continue to do so.
Adam Perlaky
Former Senior Analyst, Americas World Gold CouncilGold skew is at all-time 'cheapness' highlighting bullish sentiment
Gold rallied on Friday following the LBMA fix which left the fix price flat on the week and XAU higher (XAU +2%, LBMA -0.1%) as yields fell following the Fed rate cut which left the market thinking the ‘organic growth’ Powell discussed could represent future QE.
Ray Jia
Research Head, China World Gold CouncilChinese gold premium hit six-year high in August
- In August, Shanghai Gold Benchmark (PM) rose 11% to 355 yuan/gram and the local gold premium peaked at a six-year high.
- While Au(T+D)’s trading volume in August surged to a new all-time high, gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) declined again last month.
- Gold imports dropped to 44t in July, the lowest since 2017.
- The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 6t to its gold reserves in August.
Thomas Kertsos
Portfolio Manager of the First Eagle Gold Fund First Eagle Investment ManagementFirst Eagle Investment Management on gold’s contribution to an investment portfolio
Louise Street
Senior Markets Analyst World Gold CouncilOil price jump highlights gold’s lower volatility
In our recently published report Gold: the most effective commodity investment, we looked at how gold is under-represented in the commodity indices investors often use to gain exposure. This can have unintended consequences on portfolio performance, especially when other commodities – such as oil – can have significantly different characteristics than gold.