Insights

Despite record-high prices Diwali gold demand was healthy, with strong sales driven by investment appeal. Indian gold ETFs continue to attract strong interest from investors, with October seeing the largest inflows on record. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has purchased 78t of gold to date this year, making it the second highest annual purchase on record. Uptick in gold imports in October.

The surge in demand from the import duty cut was tempered by fresh record-high prices and an inauspicious period in September according to the Hindu calendar. Domestic gold prices are currently at a slight discount over landed cost1 amid normalising demand. However, signs of festive buying are beginning to emerge. With an addition of 54.7t y-t-d,2  the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) gold reserves have grown by 7%. Increased interest in Indian gold ETFs; inflow momentum remains strong. Gold imports see moderation in imports after August surge.

The reduction of gold’s import duty brought domestic gold prices lower 6% m/m, with y-t-d gains now at 10%. The lower import duty has also reportedly boosted consumer demand ahead of the festive season. In turn, strong demand pushed the domestic gold price to a premium relative to the landed price following five months of discounts. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continued with its consistent but measured approach to buying gold. Gold ETFs saw substantial inflows in July on the back of adjustments to the treatment of long-term capital gains. Gold imports also maintained their momentum in July. 

Gold import duty was cut by more than half. Long-term capital gains tax on gold has been adjusted down and the holding period decreased. Profits on gold ETFs and mutual funds will no longer be taxed at the short-term capital gains rate if held for at least 12 months. Despite some potential short-term disruptions, we expect the combined effects of these changes to add at least 50t to gold demand in H2 2024.

Global and domestic gold prices stay elevated, y-t-d gains at 16%. Jewellery demand subdued; investment demand dominant. Significant widening of discounts between domestic and international gold prices. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) grows its gold reserves with its highest monthly purchase in nearly two years in June. Gold ETFs inflows sustain momentum in June. Steady trend in gold imports.

Gold rose to a new all-time high in mid-May before pulling back, likely on profit taking, to close the month at US$2,343/oz. This delivered a 1% monthly increase, adding to gains in March (9%) and April (5%).

International and domestic gold prices moderated from the April peaks but ended the month with gains following the notable price rise of March. After a weak March and April, there was resurgence in gold demand around the Akshaya Tritiya festival. Domestic gold prices continue to trade at a discount in relation to the international prices, but the discounts have narrowed from a month ago. Meanwhile, the RBI added to its gold reserves in April and gold ETFs witnessed outflows for the first time in 12 months.

International and domestic gold prices alike touched record high in early March. The price surge presents headwinds for gold demand, even in the face of the ongoing wedding season. Domestic gold prices is trading at a discount in relation to the international prices with demand being crimped by high prices. Meanwhile, the RBI added to its gold reserves in February, inflows into gold ETFs maintained positive momentum and imports saw a sharp rise.

International and domestic gold prices alike retreated in January. Prices nevertheless remain high and this has been impacting gold jewellery demand in India. Gold imports too have moderated. Domestic gold prices began to trade at a premium to international prices since late January following nearly three months of trading at a discount. Meanwhile, the RBI made the highest monthly purchase of gold in eighteen months in January and Indian gold ETFs continue to see inflows.

Gold price in INR rose in tandem (11% since October) with the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD, due to the stable INR/USD.

The international gold price shot up by 3% in December to US$1,812/oz, supported by expectations of a less-hawkish US Fed in the light of lower yields and dollar weakness.

The international gold price jumped by 7.4% in November to US$1,760/oz, boosted by lower yields and dollar weakness.

The domestic gold price diverged from the international gold price: the MCX Gold Spot price rose marginally by 0.2% compared to a 2% decline in the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD

Healthy retail demand in September drove the local price briefly into premium, but market dynamics generated a discount for much of the month. Indian gold ETFs witnessed a marginal net inflow of 0.4t in September as a domestic gold price correction enticed investors back into gold  
 

Retail demand is gradually picking up, supported by festivals during the month and ahead of the wedding season. Official imports are expected to pick up during August on the back of improved retail demand.

The domestic gold price declined by 0.7% during June, ending the month at Rs50,809/10g. Retail demand remained muted as the wedding season ended and sowing activity picked up with the onset of the monsoon.

On 30 June, India’s Ministry of Finance notified the industry that basic custom duty (BCD) on gold would increase from 1 July.

Retail demand remained strong y‑o‑y during the first three weeks of May due to robust Akshaya Tritiya sales, wedding demand and the lower base period of 2021. But demand softened during the last week of the month due to a higher gold price and fewer auspicious marriage dates.

The international gold price declined in April, led by interest rate volatility and dollar strength. The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD fell by 0.4% and the MCX Gold Spot in rupees (INR) rose by 1% over the month.

Gold prices extended their gain in March, led by higher inflationary pressures and rising geo-political risks. The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the MCX Gold Spot in rupees (INR) rose by 1.1% and 1.7% respectively over the month.